For the Class of 2029, why is it important to get into a top-ranked university in the United States more than ever?

(Question from 網友: Haden371)

The answer to this question may differ from the past, with both explicit and implicit reasons for that.  For this discussion, I will start things off with the explicit reasons, and in subsequent College Q&A Discussions, I will address the implicit reasons.  Twenty years ago, for those graduating with a bachelor’s degree from a top-ranked university, securing high-income jobs was much easier. In fact, many of my friends (U.S. citizens) who grew up in that generation ended up working at Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, and even CNN.  I say this with confidence, as many people (who graduated in 2001 and 2002) that I know were working there immediately after graduation.  They were able to land themselves with marquee company not only because they were qualified in terms of their skills but also because the job market landscape was quite different from today, particularly in terms of supply and demand, driven by a relatively stable geopolitical climate and globalization. The late 1990s, in fact, was a “decade of globalization par excellence” (Bachi, 2018). This is evident as resources released by the decline in military expenditures following the end of the Cold War were funneled into the economy, while free-market economics and pro-market policies were promoted globally (Bachi, 2018).

Unlike those who applied to college in the late '90s, today’s college applicants face more uncertainties than ever, including “Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, the global migrant and refugee crisis, a warming planet, and competition with China” (Foreign Affairs, 2024).

How does all this directly affect the college application process? Due to these global challenges and uncertainties, more students may be applying to elite schools for the perceived safety and future opportunities they offer. This makes admissions to top-ranked universities more competitive than in the past, meaning applicants must contend with tougher competition, requiring higher test scores, more impressive extracurriculars, and stronger personal narratives to stand out in an increasingly crowded field.

Most importantly, these factors influence how applicants approach the college application process, pushing them to make choices that balance passion, security, and long-term viability, all while navigating increased competition and financial pressures.

Figure 1.

The 1990s is probably considered one of the stellar moments in the history of the U.S. economy. Not only was GDP growing exponentially (see Figure 1), but inflation was also tamed for nearly three decades (1990 – 2020), as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2

What does a growing GDP and tame inflation give you? In Figure 3, the U.S. has also experienced groundbreaking employment growth that has not been seen for decades, with the total number of jobs in the U.S. growing by 28 million from 1990 to 2000 (Marcus, 2022).

Figure 3 Changes in the Number of Jobs in the U.S., 1990-2000

While all of these key determinants have been established for people aiming to achieve their ‘American Dream,’ there are three correlated trends that have also evolved over the course of these three decades.

The first consideration is where you obtained your degree, or “college prestige” (Townsend, 2023).  Just as selective college admissions offices want to see how competitive candidates are in taking AP courses during their senior year in high school, employers also seek to recruit the best individuals to enhance their talent pool.  In fact, “58% of hiring managers consider college prestige in hiring decisions” (Townsend, 2023).  Not only does this apply in the job market, it is even more applicable through the lens of sports.   If you were the General Manager (GM) of an NBA team, it would be no surprise if you selected top prospects from Kentucky, North Carolina, and Duke.

This discussion leads us to insights presented in the YouTube video "Why Big Companies Hire Ivy League Graduates," where Jordan Peterson, a renowned psychologist and author of the best-selling books 12 Rules for Life and Beyond Order, asserts that “part of the advantage of hiring an Ivy League graduate is not just that they went to a high-quality school, but that it is nearly impossible to get in. Thus, the admission process at the school effectively screens candidates for employers” (Valuetainment, 1:00 – 1:17).

A company functions similarly to an NBA team; both require a competitive roster to thrive in their respective arenas. Imagine a scenario where a team is composed solely of NBA All-Star caliber players facing off against a squad assembled from G League talent; intuitively, the team with the superior roster is more likely to achieve victory. This analogy underscores the critical importance of selecting top-tier candidates to ensure organizational success, reflecting broader trends in hiring practices and educational prestige.

Not only does the school you graduate from affect your opportunities at major companies, but it can also lead to higher salaries. According to the Wall Street Journal’s rankings of U.S. colleges and universities, “A degree from the University of Pennsylvania (an Ivy League institution) may significantly impact your salary by adding an estimated $80,000 a year” (McNair, 2023). Thus, a school's reputation holds significance for employers, as they may actively seek candidates from prestigious institutions or be influenced by seeing well-known schools on your resume.

The second trend occurring in the United States is 'degree inflation.' This growing trend has evolved over the past few decades; not only does cash lose its purchasing power over time, but a bachelor’s degree may no longer be considered sufficient. One important statistic that illustrates this phenomenon is that employment rates are higher for careers that require a master’s degree; do not be surprised if you are the only candidate in the room with a four-year degree.

The salary difference shown in Figure 4 indicates that “those with a master’s or higher degree earned 20 percent more than those with a bachelor’s degree” (NCES, 2024).

Figure 4:                     

The third trend that has gradually emerged is what I call ‘degree combination.’ This occurs when your competitors aim to go the extra mile by obtaining multiple degrees to enhance their chances of advancing their careers and increasing their income. This phenomenon not only appears in news headlines like "Multiple Degrees Can Make You a More Desirable Job Candidate," but it is also actively occurring now. I can speak confidently about this as I have witnessed mid-career physicians currently enrolled in the MPH (Master of Public Health) program at Columbia University. This postgraduate training elevates their credentials not only for clinical positions but also “aims to use the MPH to advance careers (90%) as researchers, policy-makers, or managers” (Zweigenthal et al., 2016). In fact, two of my colleagues in the Columbia MPH program are not only skilled physicians but also serve as active professors at the University of Virginia and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. To provide my audience with a firsthand account of the ‘degree combination’ trend and why they might want to add new credentials to their impressive profiles, I plan to invite them to my future YouTube program called Stories of Excellence (翔見人物). Observing them extended their academic fervor is not a coincidence.  In fact, “nearly a quarter of MPH students are physicians” (Zweigenthal et al., 2016).

In conclusion, the significance of attending a top-ranked university in the United States has evolved over time due to changes in the global job market, economic conditions, and educational trends. Twenty years ago, a degree from an elite institution almost guaranteed high-paying jobs in fields like finance and media due to the booming economy and post-Cold War geopolitical stability. Today, however, graduates face a more competitive and uncertain landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and degree inflation.

The reputation of a university still plays a crucial role in career opportunities, as employers actively seek candidates from prestigious institutions. This serves as a pre-screening process, ensuring they recruit top talent. Additionally, salaries for graduates from top schools, particularly Ivy League institutions, can significantly outpace those from other universities, further reinforcing the importance of school choice.

One ongoing trend that cannot be overlooked is that the rise of degree inflation has made a bachelor’s degree less of a distinguishing factor. More careers now require a master’s degree or higher to remain competitive, and the salary gap between bachelor’s and advanced degree holders has widened. The emerging trend of combining degrees—such as mid-career professionals pursuing additional qualifications like an MPH—reflects the growing demand for multifaceted skill sets in today’s job market.

References:

Bagchi, A. K. (2018). The 1990s. Oxford Scholarship Online. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817345.003.0006

Foreign Affairs. (2024, September 7). On the Ballot. Foreign Affairs Magazine. https://link.foreignaffairs.com/view/634825d051b09e4d270354c7ltl67.ovq0/4a803eb7

McNair, K. (2023, September 19). A Degree from this Ivy league university Can Add Over $80,000 to Your Salary. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/15/colleges-that-can-have-the-biggest-impact-on-your-salary.html

Marcus, M. J. (2002a). A Graphic Overview of Employment and Earnings in the 1990s. Indiana Business Review. https://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2002/fall02/fall02_art4.html

NCES. (2024, May). Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment. National Center for

Education Statistics. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cba/annual-earnings

Statista. (2024, August 21). Annual Inflation Rate U.S. 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191077/inflation-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/

Zweigenthal, V. E., Marquez, E., & London, L. (2016). 'Why do an MPH?' Motivations and intentions of physicians undertaking postgraduate public health training at the University of Cape Town. Global health action, 9, 32735. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v9.32735