For the Class of 2029, what is the educational trends for college admission that you should bear in mind?

(Question from 網友: MeMe009)

The answer to this question is that the hard gets harder. My response to this question derives from deductive reasoning through the principles of basic economics and the principles of exclusivity.

When viewed through the lens of supply and demand, it becomes clear why gaining admission to selective institutions is now more challenging than it was 30, 20, or even 10 years ago. While the admission policies at these selective colleges “show little inclination to change over the last 30 years,” according to Rick Hess of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the U.S. population has grown by about 70 million, from “less than 2.5 million to more than 3.7 million” (Tracinski, 2024). In theory, if the student population increased proportionally, one might expect a consistent admission selectivity rate. However, the reality is quite different, with a much higher demand for college spaces but only a small increase in supply across elite institutions (Tracinski, 2024).

Take Yale College as an example, often regarded as one of the elites among elite universities. In 1979, the incoming freshman class was 1,346 students (Tracinski, 2024). By 2015, that number had increased by only 14 students, to 1,360, despite a 300% increase in applications, from 9,331 in 1979 to 30,932 in 2015 (Tracinski, 2024). For the Class of 2028, the incoming class size rose to 2,146 (Yale, 2024), but the number of applicants surged to 57,465—nearly 1.8 times the number in 2015.

While Yale has admitted around 800 more students since 2015, the dramatic increase in applications has far outpaced the growth in available spots, making the admissions process significantly more competitive. Hence, from the perspective of supply and demand, the hard becomes harder.

Knowing the fact that elite universities have refused to grow in proportion to the student population, how does that impact the educational trends for the incoming Class of 2029? The answer to this question falls under the principle of exclusivity. In a selective process that primarily employs a meritocratic system—which includes your grade point average (GPA), SAT/ACT scores, TOEFL/IELTS scores, AP Exams, and ECs (extracurricular activities)—the system does not operate purely on meritocracy. If it ran purely on a meritocratic system, then meeting the academic requirements should guarantee enrollment in the school.

Let’s assume that the 57,465 applicants to Yale in 2024 all met the admission requirements. Yale still has to reject approximately 55,000 students. Now, the question comes down to what made the 2,146 applicants (the chosen ones) stand out from the 55,000 students who were rejected. The answer lies in institutional needs, personal statements, short answer questions, and the interview with faculty or alumni from that school.

While we can definitely quantify the merits of your hard work through numerical data—such as GPA, SAT, TOEFL, AP Exams, and the number of hours devoted to volunteer work and other ECs—how do we define whether your personal statements, interviews, and responses to short-answer questions stand out in the eyes of the Yale admission faculty? This is the real challenge, considering Yale College admissions as an example in this article.  While viewers might say, you are using Yale as one example, and one example could not possible epitomize all the elite schools in the United States.  While everyone has a definition of what “elite” would mean in the contexts of schools with high selectivity, let’s use not my term of definition but a third-party (an independent source) such as College Board who ran the statistics from 1986 to 2003 to show changes of the acceptance rates among the “top 20 private” (Bound et al., 2023) as shown in Table 2.  If we look at the acceptance rate during each time span, the percentage change from 1986 to 2003 under top 20 private is negative 22.63%. 

The negative 22.63% change in acceptance rates among the top 20 private universities from 1986 to 2003 strongly supports the argument that “the hard gets harder” in elite college admissions. This percentage reflects a sharp decrease in the proportion of students admitted, highlighting a trend of increased selectivity that has intensified over decades. As demand for spots at elite institutions grows, acceptance rates decline accordingly, making it progressively more difficult for students to secure admission despite meeting academic qualifications.

This figure also underscores the principle of exclusivity in college admissions, illustrating that even as applicant pools grow, the increase in available spots has not kept pace. This trend is consistent with the supply-and-demand imbalance you describe: while the U.S. population and number of qualified applicants have surged, elite institutions have maintained relatively stable incoming class sizes, thereby amplifying the competitive environment.

In essence, the negative 22.63% decrease in acceptance rates at top private universities validates that gaining admission has become significantly more challenging. It demonstrates a clear historical pattern that aligns with the broader economic forces of limited supply and high demand, reinforcing the claim that the path to elite college admission is increasingly exclusive and competitive.

If you want statistics that are far more recent, the New York Times article This Is Peak College Admissions Insanity clearly illustrates this pattern “with a with a precipitous rise in the number of people clamoring to get in. The so-called Ivy-Plus schools — the eight members of the Ivy League plus M.I.T., Duke, Chicago and Stanford — collectively received about 175,000 applications in 2002.  In 2022, the most recent year for which totals are available, they got more than 590,000, with only a few thousand more available spots” (Currell, 2024).  In a time, span of two decades, applications to these elite institutions increased 300 percent, where only a few thousands are considered for this exclusivity. 

The broader impact of this exclusivity, however, extends beyond mere admission numbers. Institutions like Yale, which prioritize institutional needs and qualitative assessments, continually refine their criteria to identify students who match their specific goals and culture. This results in a uniquely competitive environment where candidates must showcase not only academic merit but also personal insights and values that resonate with the institution's identity. Consequently, the admissions process has moved toward a holistic assessment, making success more elusive and, paradoxically, subjective.

For prospective students, understanding this shift underscores the importance of introspection and authentic self-presentation. It’s not just about GPA or standardized test scores but about demonstrating a clear narrative of purpose, resilience, and contribution. This trend requires applicants to leverage both academic accomplishments and distinct personal attributes to rise above the numbers game. Ultimately, for the Class of 2029 and beyond, navigating this increasingly selective terrain will demand adaptability, a strategic approach, and a keen sense of self, as the "hard gets harder" in the realm of college admissions.

References:

Bound, J., Hershbein, B., & Long, B. T. (2009). Playing the Admissions Game: Student Reactions to Increasing College Competition. The Journal of Economic Perspectives : a Journal of the American Economic Association, 23(4), 119–146. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.4.119